Politics is indeed a complex matter, and democratic politics, in particular, is even more intricate due to its ever-changing nature. In a democracy, numbers alone are the deciding factor in forming a government. Hence, political parties are always focused on securing the right numbers. Common strategies employed by all political parties and politicians include ensuring their own victory by maximizing their votes, reducing the opponent's votes, or fragmenting their support base across different areas.
For those deeply involved in politics, there are no permanent enemies or friends. They switch parties and ideologies based on their own interests. Currently, Indian politics stands at a crucial and sensitive juncture. While Muslims may have lost significant political influence, their presence remains. However, if emotions continue to dictate political strategies without a proper understanding of the situation, the damage done over the past ten years could escalate to a point where no paths to recovery remain. The BJP government has proven to be particularly detrimental to minorities, especially Muslims, and this no longer requires evidence. Constitutional amendments over the past ten years under the BJP far exceed those made during the sixty years of Congress rule. It's important to note that Congress and other so-called secular parties are not necessarily allies or supporters of Muslims. However, because Muslims form a part of their voter base, these parties are compelled to consider them. At the same time, they also have to cater to the sentiments of the majority since they cannot form a government relying solely on Muslim votes. This dual compulsion is what drives their politics. On the other hand, the BJP’s overt anti-Muslim stance strengthens its political power, as it draws support from its specific Hindu vote bank.
Another reality of India is that, apart from Jammu and Kashmir, Muslims cannot independently form a government in any state through elections. Therefore, to remain part of the policy-making process, Muslims must align with others. It should also be noted that staying in opposition forever does not benefit any political party or figure, as it offers nothing more than emotional slogans and empty dreams to their voters. The very essence of politics lies in participating in governance and law-making, a process that is collective rather than individual. Not every Muslim political leader is beneficial or sincere to the community, nor is every non-Muslim leader an enemy of Muslims. In fact, certain actions taken with clarity and courage by a non-Muslim leader may not be as easily accomplished by a Muslim leader due to various reasons. Therefore, voting solely based on religious lines can be more harmful than beneficial for Muslims. In a democracy, isolation does not work; political survival lies in aligning with larger groups. How many you can gather or which group you decide to align with under pressure is what defines your political stance.
In Maharashtra, Muslims make up only 12% of the population, but in certain areas where they reside together, their collective voting can influence the results of around 20 assembly seats. Elections in Maharashtra are approaching, and if the conditions were favorable for the ruling party and the BJP, the election process would have already begun. In the previous parliamentary elections, the significant one-sided voting by Muslims had a positive impact, reflected in the current parliament, with Muslims in UP, Bengal, and Maharashtra successfully demonstrating the value of their votes across the country. For their opponents, particularly the BJP, breaking this unity between secular Hindus and Muslims is the biggest challenge. They can only succeed in dividing this alliance if people remain religiously provoked.
In parliamentary or assembly elections, a single opposition party member’s eloquent speeches or the dramatic tearing of a bill cannot stop its passage. In a democracy, the personal virtues and abilities of a politician are only effective when they have the support of the majority. Muslims do need a voice like Asaduddin Owaisi in parliament, as he is a great orator. However, due to the nature of his politics, unlike the Muslim League in Kerala, he cannot join hands with either Congress or the BJP in forming a central government. In places like Maharashtra, Bihar, UP, and Bengal, given the political dynamics, Owaisi’s politics does not provide significant benefits to Muslims. It is important to note that political parties and politicians do not always contest elections with the sole intention of winning; sometimes, they participate to ensure a particular candidate or party loses. Thus, even though the battle is typically between two major candidates, many others also enter the race with varying motives.
In the last UP assembly elections, I had predicted that Owaisi might cause a few candidates to lose, but he would win only one or none. Similarly, before the Maharashtra assembly elections, I mentioned that his party might win between one to three seats, which would not benefit Muslims but would cause damage by ensuring losses in certain constituencies. The results in both cases played out accordingly, and the same applies to the Bihar assembly election results.
Just because a person possesses some good qualities or has performed well in some areas does not mean that all their actions are commendable, and we should blindly agree with everything they say or do. Conversely, disagreement with a person does not imply that we should consider them an enemy. Even though you may not agree with everything Maulana Mahmood Madani says, you cannot reasonably disagree with all his points either. Similarly, just as one may not agree with everything Mufti Ismail and Owaisi say, it doesn't mean that one should dislike everything they stand for.
In conclusion, Asaduddin Owaisi’s decision to contest elections outside Telangana, especially in Bihar, given the current political climate, is not in the best interest of the country or the Muslim community. This is a very clear fact, understood even by someone with basic political knowledge. If he continues to do so, despite this clarity, then either he is compelled to act this way, or he is simply focused on expanding his political base and personal influence, with no real concern for the future of the country or the Muslim community. In either case, while we may not condemn him for his other virtues, we will certainly strongly oppose this particular course of action.
